CHIŞINĂU (Imedia) - If elections were to take place next week, the Party of Communists (PC) would gain 28 percent of the vote, followed by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) with 16.5 percent, the Democratic Party (DP) with 8.6 percent, and the Liberal Party (LP) with 4.9 percent.  

These results were presented by a poll conducted by the IMAS-INC Marketing and Polling Institute between April 15 and May 3, 2010. The poll was made public on May 10.

The electoral threshold in the country is five percent, but Parliament has already voted for a first reading of a draft law lowering it to four percent.

The Moldova Noastra [Our Moldova] Alliance (MNA) would gain 2.1 percent and would not be able to gain seats in the legislature.

All the other parties would also get under four percent.

About 26 percent of respondents in the poll said they were undecided, followed by ten percent who said they would not vote.

The most trusted politicians was DP head Marian Lupu (42 percent), followed by LDP head and Prime Minister Vlad Filat (39 percent), and Party of Communists (PC) head and former President Vladimir Voronin (36 percent).

LP deputy head gained the confidence of 28 percent of respondents, followed by LP head Mihai Ghimpu with 23 percent and MNA head Serafim Urechean with 11 percent.

The margin of error was three percent.

Commentary:

Igor Botan: We are observing the maintenance of a balance in the preferences for the PC and the components of the Alliance

Igor Botan, executive director of the Association for Participatory Democracy, says that „we are observing the maintenance of a balance in the preferences for the PC and the components of the Alliance."

„Another conclusion we can make is that citizens are intensely feeling the effects of the crisis. If the citizens' lack of optimism continues, there is a risk that the undecideds will vote for the opposition. So the parties of the Alliance for European Integration need to take active measures to change the situation. During the summer season it is easier to give hope to citizens that the country can quickly get out of the crisis because when people vote they have their own expectations in mind, no matter if these are pessimistic or optimistic. If they are pessimistic, citizens cast a protest vote. If they are optimistic, there is a chance they will support the parties that are currently in Government," Mr. Botan adds.

He argues that another important element the Alliance needs to keep in mind is „to avoid sensitive subjects that divide society, which, unfortunately, has not yet happened."

„The parties in the Alliance have been walking on knife's edge, at some point even arguing amongst each other. But if we have a good agricultural year, the main parties of the Alliance will probably want elections in the fall. But if we have a bad year, we don't yet know what the best option will be because the winter will be very tough. Fees for heat will be very high, prices will rise, and so on. These are things that matter a lot for citizens," Mr. Botan concludes.

Arcadie Barbarosie: There is a negative potential accumulating in society and citizens' confidence in state institutions and political parties is going down

Arcadie Barbarosie, executive director of the Institute for Public Policy, says that „there is a negative potential accumulating in society and citizens' confidence in state institutions and political parties is going down."

„Still, despite this situation, it is clear that the current administration managed to change media instruments, and make some changes, at least at the national television and radio stations. The decrease in confidence in the Party of Communists can be explained by the fact that a number of compromising materials about the former Government and the Party of Communists leader keep appearing. Changes in the media environment explain the substantial increase in confidence people have for the LDP and its head Vladimir Filat, who is also a P.M. He is always in the media and performs very well. In terms of the DP, confidence in this party has stabilized, the party has probably reached its ceiling, and confidence in its head, Marian Lupu, may have done the same. The DP has not really appeared in the media, has not produced events, and Mr. Lupu is probably considered to be the only presidential candidate on the part of the AEI because of inertia," Mr. Barbarosie notes. 

The expert argues that „there is a decrease in the popularity of the LP, which we can explain by the fact that Chisinau mayor Dorin Chirtoaca, who is LP head, has taken a number of unpopular measures in Chisinau."

„AEI parties need to seriously think about early elections. Although the PC is dropping in electoral preferences, they should not ignore the decrease in the LP's popularity. Moreover, we need to very clearly see who the undecideds are and who they might vote for. They probably are part of the Communist electorate and they could come back to the Communists," Mr. Barbarosie concludes.

File:

A poll released on April 15 by CBS AXA and ordered by the Viitorul Institute for Development and Social Initiatives says that the PC would garner 30.3 percent of the vote, followed by the LDP (14 percent), the DP (10.8 percent), the LP (7.4 percent), and the MNA (1.2 percent).

The most popular politicians were DP head Marian Lupu (56.9 percent), P.M. Vlad Filat (44.5 percent), Communist head Vladimir Voronin (40.6 percent), Chisinau mayor Dorin Chirtoaca (37.3 percent), interim President Mihai Ghimpu (25 percent), and MNA head Serafim Urechean (16.7 percent).

The margin of error was three percent.