CHIŞINĂU (Imedia) - Viktor Ianukovici seems to have won the second round of presidential elections in Ukraine on February 7.
With 99.53 percent of the ballots counted, Mr. Ianukovici received 48.82 percent of the vote, three percent more than his competitor Yulia Timosenko.
Ms. Timoshenko said, however, that she would not recognize Mr. Ianukovici's election.
Imedia spoke with a few political analysts about whether Mr. Ianukovici's victory would affect Moldova.
Commentary:
Eugen Revenco: It is important to have a pragmatic approach to our and Ukraine's national interests
Eugen Revenco, program director with the Foreign Policy Association (FPA), says that the Ukrainian President is one of the most important foreign policy actors in the country.
„As a result, he will have a decisive impact on the country's foreign affairs, but in Kyiv there are other important forces, like the Prime Minister or Parliament, which could balance the President's political games. /.../ We cannot tell whether Ukraine, from now on, will become more or less aggressive toward Moldova. But it is important to have a pragmatic approach to our and Ukraine's national interests when we try to eliminate the problems in our relationship. And I think it is in Ukraine's interest to do this, no matter who is in power. /.../" Mr. Revenco adds.
„At the same time, in the last few months we have witnessed new dynamics in ties between Chisinau and Kyiv. Prime Ministers and Foreign Affairs Ministers have met. A more pragmatic dialogue has begun and officials have tried to start solving problems in order to launch common interest projects. In terms of Transnistria, officials in the separatist republic are preventing the demarcation of the Moldovan-Ukrainian border. But we all know that establishing the border with Moldova is one of the main elements in the consolidation of Ukraine's statehood.
From this standpoint, I don't see why Ukraine would create trouble for us. The consolidation of Ukrainian statehood will be the priority of any serious politician in Kyiv. So we could expect constant interest from Ukraine to solve issues in Transnistria. We just don't know how quickly this will happen. In any case, Ukraine will remain an important actor in the resolution of the Transnistrian problem," Mr. Revenco stresses.
Petru Bogatu: I do not think that Viktor Ianukovici's victory will radically change Ukraine's political path
Petru Bogatu, a political commentator, says that „paradoxically, the election in Ukraine will have positive impacts on Moldova and other Soviet republics, including Russia, because this poll has shown that Ukraine is a free country and that elections have generally been free and fair."
„This proves that the orange revolution did not fall apart as badly as some have said, because within these five years Ukraine has consolidated its democracy and free press," Mr. Bogatu adds.
„As far as Viktor Ianukovici's victory, I do not think it will radically change Ukraine's political path. Of course, if we talk about details, Kyiv will probably be more prudent in its discourse, including toward Moldova. We should not delude ourselves by thinking that somebody else's victory would have contributed enormously to the resolution of the Transnistrian conflict. That conflict does not seem solvable at the moment, and the key for it is not in Kyiv. What we could say is that if Ukraine picks European integration, Moldovan-Ukrainian ties will normalize or at least become more civilized. There will be problems, just like there would have been if Ms. Timoshenko won. For example, she has recently made some statements about Romania and the delimitation of the continental plateau in the Black Sea which pointed to the fact that Kyiv and Bucharest would have had cold ties anyway. That would have also affected Chisinau," Mr. Bogatu believes.
The analyst suggests that „we need to find common language with Kyiv where we can because Ukraine is a big country and it is in Chisinau's interest to have normal ties with the country."
„Other than that, I do not think we should expect either beautiful or dangerous things as a result of Viktor Ianucovici's victory. Both Mr. Ianukovici and Ms. Timosenko, although at one point they looked like two irreconcilable extremes, are now much closer than it would seem at first sight." Mr. Bogatu concludes.
Grigori Perepelita: Ukraine's movement toward the European Union will suddenly slow down
Grigori Perepelita, a Ukrainian analyst, said in an interview with Radio Free Europe that Ukraine's foreign policy would change radically after Mr. Ianucovici's victory .
„Unfortunately, Ukraine's movement toward the European Union will suddenly slow down. The question of joining NATO will be taken off the list of plans or will be replaced with a format of cooperation that will be determined by Moscow. European Union membership will be eliminated as a priority, and it is very probable that the Eastern Partnership will also be buried.. Ukraine will probably also stop talking about developing GUAM [Imedia: a regional organization that includes Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Moldova, which Russia sees as a rival to the Commonwealth of Independent States] because it goes against Russia's interests. As a result, Ukraine will return to Russia's sphere of influence," Mr. Perepelita added.
The analyst believes that Ukraine will also lose its role as a mediator in the Transnistrian conflict and will „channel" the Kremlin's interests in the region.
File:
The Moldovan-Ukrainian border is about 1,222 kilometers long. During the Soviet period, it acted more like an internal administrative division which was not marked by any border signs.
The delimitation of the Moldovan-Ukrainian border started in 1995 after a delimitation commission was founded. In 1999, the two countries' parliaments adopted and ratified a treaty on the state border.
Beginning in 2002, the second stage of the border demarcation began, which involved coming up with a line on the map.
The zones that remain sensitive in the demarcation process are Giurgiulesti and Palanca. Moldova wants to get official confirmation that it has a 430-meter point of access to the Danube, which is stipulated in the border treaty.
In exchange, Moldova has pledged to transfer 7.7 km of the Odessa-Reni highway that crosses through Moldova, as well as adjacent land, to Ukraine.
Kyiv and Chisinau have already begun the demarcation of the Moldovan-Ukrainian border in the Transnistrian portion. The first border delimitation pillar was installed on January 29, 2010.
Both countries also still disagree about the Novodnestrovsk barrage.
Moldova has a number of properties in Ukraine, but the process to officially transfer ownership has been stagnant in the last few years because Ukraine has conditioned this process with Moldova's respect for the border treaty and work within various cooperation commissions.
Because of these conflicts, Kyiv and Chisinau have never had direct air flights. A train ride to the Ukrainian capital takes 18-20 hours.
