CHIŞINĂU (Imedia) - Despite the fact that the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has shown a rise in the Moldovan economy during the first trimester, Moldova's foreign trade performance after the crisis will be moderately better and could be affected by the uncertainty still characterizing certain economies.

The NBSreleased data showing Moldovan exports going up 12 percent after an impressive leap in deliveries to the Czech Republic (3.2 times more than during the same period last year), Turkey (2.8 times), Greece (2.9 times), the U.S. (2.1 times), and the U.K. After a 41.7-percent increase in exports to the Russian market, Russia consolidated its first place in terms of the destinations of Moldovan goods. Turkey has made a surprising leap to fifth, while Greece is now in the top ten.

The branches that helped Moldovan exports most were car and transportation equipment, manufacturing (especially clothing and accessories), beverages, and tobacco.

„Foreign trade seems to be improving. There are three factors confirming it. First, exports are rising more than imports. Second, exports have been rising for the last five months. Third, the trade deficit is decreasing, and imports have been registering positive numbers starting just a month ago," experts and authorities say.

„There is growth, which is giving us hope that the Government's objective of eight-percent growth in 2010 is a realistic plan," they add, although the comparison basis is rather low after a nearly 20-percent decrease in exports last year.

The Ministry of Economy and Commerce is expecting a step-by-step increase of exports via „the use of tariff benefits Moldova has gained in free trade agreements within the Stability Pact for South-Eastern Europe, the liberalization of access of the markets of World Trade Organization members, the use of preferential treatment the Europena Union has granted, and the increase in export quality, especially due to investments in expanding and renewing the technological base."

Viitorul Institute for Development and Social Initiatives experts, as well as specialists from the Expert Grup Independent Center, say that there is a slight tendency toward stabilization, but that it still needs to prove its solidity in the first semester. They add that the trade deficit has fallen, not because Moldovan goods have become more competitive but because the imports are stagnating.

Imports registered positive growth in March, and only went up 1.3 percent in the first trimester of 2010 compared to the same period in 2009. It is true that the rate of growth of imports from the first eight countries is much above average. Russia came back to first place, after having been beaten by Ukraine, after deliveries to Russia went up 3.7 times. The explanation is simple - whereas Chisinau used to import natural gas from Kazakhstan at the beginning of 2009 via Gazprom, it now only uses Russian gas. Imports from China (27.5 percent), Romania (25.5 percent), and Italy (19.4 percent) went up, as well.

Official data show that pre-crisis levels were reached in March, when the rate of growth was higher than the rate of exports. So the export of goods in Moldova has gone up 5.7 percent in March compared to the same period last year. Imports went up 6.2 percent.

It is too early to make conclusions since imports were much more affected by exports - they contracted by 33 percent in 2009. Moreover, freezing salaries and a rise in prices will negatively affect the population's purchasing power and, respectively, internal consumption. Under these circumstances, the Government's 11-percent rise prediction in 2010 seems a bit optimistic.

„There is a lot of uncertainty in terms of the recovery of internal consumption and imports in the next period. Recovery will be rather fragile," economic analysts say.

The Government hopes that a possible rise in investments, „especially cars, electrical materials, and mineral products" could lead to a rise in imports. In the first trimester, imports of mineral fuels fell 14.5 percent, while gas and industrial gas products by nearly 20 percent. „The major weight in the import total will, as usual, go to energy resources because of economic growth planned in basic sectors of the economy, especially prices for natural gas," says the Economy and Commerce Ministry at the end of 2009. This seems to be coming true.

Moldovan exports made up 313.2 million U.S. dollars in the first trimester of 2010. Imports were twice as large - 763.2 million dollars. Although rising, foreign trade never reached pre-crisis levels, and the Government expects for the record high registered in 2008 to be reached as late as 2012. If imports evolve as predicted - about ten percent per year - the record high could be reached in 2013.